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Box Office Projections: Fall Begins With The Possession And Lawless Face-Off

Written by Alexander Tucker   // 08/31/2012

Box Office Projections -- August 31 - September 2




Sam Raimi is looking for another big Box Office weekend to put under his belt, or at least the No. 1 Box office Spot. While Lawless looks for the smart audience. Here’s this weeks Box Office Projections.


Box Office Projections So, the Summer movie season is over and the first season of the Fall commences. Yes, I know it still August, but this weekend will spend two thirds of its time in September.


The Possession and Lawless will battle it out for the top spot. The underdog here is John Hillcoat’s Lawless, believe it or not. Box Office analysts are lowballing the prohibition film with the all star cast.


Most are projecting a weekend gross between $10 million and $12 million dollars for Lawless. That would be Shia LaBeouf’s lowest opening since his 2005 film, ‘The Greatest Game Ever Played.’


I’ve also been saying this for a year, but nobody wants to hear me, Tom Hardy is not an American superstar. He doesn’t put asses in the seats in this country. He’s huge in the UK and his fan base in the USA is electric, but it’s also niche. Outside of The Dark Knight Rises and Inception where he was forth from the lead Leonardo DiCaprio, his headlining films, such as Warrior and This Means War, have bombed.


Warrior was a major disappointment and only made $13.6 million dollars through its entire box office run and This Means War opened 3rd and grossed only $54 million despite Chris Pine and Reese Weatherspoon’s presence. The truth is, and this is all based on a box office point of view, ‘Lawless,’ has a bunch of A quality actors who are B quality BOX OFFICE stars.


Gary Oldman is past his Box Office prime and so is Guy Pearce, as evident by his last starring role in Lockout this year — It made only $14 million dollars domestically. Meanwhile, Jessica Chastain has yet to find her Pretty Woman role that would make her a big box office draw. I love all these actors, trust me, I really, really do, but none of them can fill stadium seating.


The Super Natural thriller The Possession will fill the void, and it has that Fall feeling. Horror films always perform best between September and November and horror films always make for good date movies. Plus, with Sam Raimi, this film is by in large expected to be more than respectable. Sam Raimi is a horror maestro after all.


The Possession has a classic horror film cast, none of the actors names on the poster are bigger than the producers or the title of the film. It stars Jeffrey Dean Morgan, who has been desperate for a hit, Kyra Sedwick, and Natasha Calis.


Bullish projection have the film grossing around $20 million dollars, low projections have the film making $14 million dollars, and I’d say, it will end up somewhere in the middle, around $16 or $17 million. Meaning The Possession will win the weekend. The Expendables 2, The Bourne Legacy and ParaNorman or 2012 Obama’s America will round out the top 5, respectably.


Box Office Mojo’s Box Office Projections:


Four-Day Forecast (August 31-Sept. 3)
1. The Possession - $15.3 million
2. Lawless - $11.4 million ($13.5 million six-day)
3. The Expendables 2 - $10.1 million (-25%)
4. The Bourne Legacy - $9.3 million (-1%)
5. ParaNorman - $7.8 million (-10%)
-. 2012 Obama’s America - $6.5 million (+0%)



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