UPDATE; Sunday, 7am PT: The Dark Knight Rises bounces back, up 47% from this Friday, while The Watch bits the dust. The film has been under a haze of tragedy and just could never really gets its marketing going.
The Trayvon Martin-George Zimmerman tragedy necessitated a last-minute name change from Neighborhood Watch to The Watch, which actually confused me a little at first, Fox didn’t send out a press release on the name change before they put out more online marketing material. Then after the Aurora tragedy, they scrapped the first trailer and tv-spots and had to make new ones fast that didn’t have the same funny long thought out beats as the original material. The film is going to open in a scant $13.3m give or take.
The Dark Knight Rises is the only film that can feel at all proud about this weekend. The film recovered and is nearing the $500 million dollar world wide mark. Other positives Warner Bros can take away? TDKR‘s domestic total of $290M through Sunday is the 3rd highest for a recent movie’s first 10 days in release, behind only The Dark Knight ($313.7M) and this early summer Marvel’s The Avengers ($373M). It soon will be the 3rd fastest to reach $300M behind the same two pics (not adjusting for inflation or IMAX or higher ticket prices). Under the circumstances, that’s not too bad.
SATURDAY 6am PT: This weekend is not looking good for Hollywood. I hate to bring up the devastating shooting in Colorado, but I believe the effects of last week still linger in this country and that combined with The London Olympics is making what is typically one of the best weekends of the summer into one of the most disappointing.
The new films this weekend, ‘The Watch,’ and ‘Step Up Revolution’ are both going nowhere fast. In fact, The Watch can already be called a box office disappointment if not a box office bomb. The film starring comedic bigwigs, Vince Vaughn, Ben Stiller and Jonah Hill, has made less than $5m dollars on Friday. Pulling in only $4.8 million dollars, marking it a five year Friday, box office low for all three of the above.
Even worse, the early weekend projections for 20th Century Fox’s big summer comedy is $14 million dollars. With Total Recall, The Babymakers and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days coming out next weekend, its hard to see this film maintaining much box office strength to even finish in the top three next weekend. It won’t pull in more than The Dark Knight Rises, or Total Recall that I can assure you and that’s why this film already looks like a total bomb.
Step Up Revolution is only fairing a little better for Lionsgate, pulling in $5 million Dollars on Friday. The PG-13, global dance franchise has actually got surprisingly solid reviews, but it’s still struggling to get off its dancing feet in 2,567 theaters.
The worst part for this Miami-set dance film is the downward projections. Despite making more than The Watch on Friday, it’s being projected to finish third by weekends end with a hollow $12m. It will be more profitable than ‘The Watch,’ because it cost a lot less to make, but you have to remember, Step Up Revolution launched a furious MTV ad campaign and even got Jennifer Lopez and Flo Rida to record a video for the film that had its world premiere on MTV Wednesday in anticipation for the film. On top of that, the franchise launched a VEVO video for the film featuring Timberland, and Ne-Yo. Summit and Lionsgate tried to catch lightning in a bottle, and they seem to have come up short. This film will fall to 5th or 6th place next weekend, after the countries hardcore dancers have already seen it and moved on with their lives.
Of course the winner this weekend is and was always going to be The Dark Knight Rises. I’m not so sure you can call the film a winner however. The film dropped an enormous 78% from its opening Friday a week ago. The “epic conclusion” is trailing the gross of Christopher Nolan’s second franchise installment, The Dark Knight. It’s doing solid world wide numbers with a cume of $149.2m. That means its worldwide total, including Friday is past $400+M, which is great, but you have to put the film in context. Early projections had this movie passing $500 million dollars world wide by now.
I hate to blame the Colorado shooting, but I think its appropriate, and according to deadline, Warner Bros executives are already using the excuse in small circles in a way to explain the down the road problems this could cause for Time Warner, AOL Time Warner stock. Their quarterly projections were based on The Dark Knight Rises roaring success. The film made $17 million dollars Friday and is projected to pull in $55 million dollars over the weekend. That would give the film a $278 million dollar two week domestic gross. The Dark Knight did $313, 781,677 million dollars in its first two weeks of domestic gross. And keep in mind, that was four years ago and ticket prices are up especially when you consider, The Dark knight Rises is in twice the IMAX’s The Dark Knight was it. This film already has and will certainly fail to meet its lofty expectations. Expectations that were justified before the tragedy that shocked us here in the film industry and more over, the world.
Here is the The Box Office Top Ten [estimates]
1. The Dark Knight Rises (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 2 [4,404 Runs] PG13
Friday $18.0M, Saturday $25.6M, Weekend $65.0M (-59%), Cume $290.0M
2. The Watch (Fox) NEW 3,168 Runs) R
Friday $4.5M, Saturday $4.9M, Weekend $13.3M
3. Ice Age 4 3D (Fox) Week 3 [3,869 Runs) PG
Friday $4.1M, Saturday $5.2M, Weekend $13.2M, Cume $114.8M
4. Step Up Revolution 3D (Summit/Lionsgate) NEW [2,567 Runs) PG13
Friday $5.0M, Saturday 3.9M, Weekend $11.8M
5. Ted (Universal) Week 5 [3,129 Runs) R
Friday $2.1M, Saturday $3.0M, Weekend $7.4M, Cume $193.7M
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 3D (Col/Sony) Week 4 [3,160 Run]
Friday $1.8M, Saturday $2.9M, Weekend $7.0M, Cume $242.2M
7. Brave 3D (Pixar/Disney) Week 6 [2,551 Runs] PG
Friday $1.2M, Weekend $3.7M, Cume $216.7M
8. Magic Mike (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,075 Runs] R
Friday $800K, Weekend $2.2M, Cume $107.2M
9. Savages (Universal) Week 4 [1,414 Runs] R
Friday $480K, Weekend $1.5M, Cume $43.6M
10. Madea’s Witness Protection (TPerry/Lionsgate) Week 5 [1,111 Runs] PG13
Friday $400K, Weekend $1.2M, Cume $62.6M
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